基于Markov过程理论的矿用通风机系统可靠性研究

结合矿井通风系统中通风机分支系统实际,依据可靠性工程理论中Markov过程理论及相关知识,探讨了矿井通风机系统可靠性分析的新方法;推导出了通风机系统的可靠度及首次故障前平均寿命的计算公式;结合现场实际,进行了实例验证;根据通风机系统可靠性各项主要指标数据,分析了影响通风机系统可靠性的因素.为现场通风技术管理人员进一步掌握矿井通风机的可靠性运行状况提供了参考依据.     

基于随机森林的耕地利用效率测度模型构建及其应用

构建合适的量化分析模型是科学把握耕地利用状况及利用效率的基础性工作,可为制定合理有效的耕地资源管控政策,实现耕地利用与生态环境的协调发展提供决策依据。为了更准确地反映耕地利用系统的复杂性、动态性及差异性等特征,鉴于随机森林的基本思想,运用随机抽样Bootstrap法在合理构建分类树的基础上,构造了耕地利用效率测度的RF模型,进而以中国粮食主产区172个城市为例训练该模型并将其运用至2003-2015年的耕地利用效率测度中,同时将BP神经网络和熵权法作为对比验证其一致性、代表性和优越性。结果表明：（1）耕地利用效率测度的RF模型不受量纲限制,运行所需参数少,运算过程简化,能够较为精确地模拟各评价指标间的复杂联系,科学量化各评价指标对耕地利用效率的贡献。（2）对同一空间单元的效率值而言,RF>BPNN>EW,RF与BPNN所得效率值的总体分布格局相似,且均与EW的测度结果存在较大差异。（3）从评价结果与现实的匹配度和精度表征参数来看,RF的测度结果与自然和社会经济发展等客观事实更相符,具有较高的适用性与可靠性。同时,与其余两种常用模型相比,RF能够降低计算复杂度,提高训练效率,其测度结果的相关系数R为0.8685,M_RPD为2.3533,且具有最小M_MSE0.0174和M_MAE0.0211,更适用于复杂非线性特征的耕地利用效率研究。     

Emission of intermediate volatility organic compounds from a ship main engine burning heavy fuel oil

Intermediate volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) are crucial precursors of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). In this study, gaseous IVOCs emitted from a ship main engine burning heavy fuel oil (HFO) were investigated on a test bench, which could simulate the real-world operations and emissions of ocean-going ships. The chemical compositions, emission factors (EFs) and volatility distributions of IVOC emissions were investigated. The results showed that the main engine burning HFO emitted a large amount of IVOCs, with average IVOC EFs of 20.2–201?mg/kg-fuel. The IVOCs were mainly comprised of unspeciated compounds. The chemical compositions of exhaust IVOCs were different from that of HFO fuel, especially for polycyclic aromatic compounds and alkylcyclohexanes. The volatility distributions of IVOCs were also different between HFO exhausts and HFO fuel. The distinctions in IVOC emission characteristics between HFO exhausts and HFO fuel should be considered when assessing the IVOC emission and related SOA formation potentials from ocean-going ships burning HFO, especially when using fuel-surrogate models.     

中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒程度及其对粮食产量的影响

耕地撂荒严重地影响着我国的粮食安全。以我国粮食主产区为研究区域,在识别撂荒地分布的基础上,测度了撂荒地空间分布格局,并建立耕地撂荒中介效应模型,探究了耕地撂荒对区域粮食产量的影响机制。结果表明：（1）中国粮食主产区耕地撂荒规模为405.53万hm²,撂荒率约为5.85%;空间上撂荒地规模分布呈“T”字形空间格局,黑龙江东北部、吉林西北部以及内蒙古南部地区为撂荒地主要集聚区。（2）耕地撂荒对于粮食主产区粮食产量具有显著负向影响,2017年我国粮食主产区因耕地撂荒损失的农田生产潜力达到1339.15万t,损失的粮食产量高达2265.6万t,损失比例达4.69%;内蒙古自治区成为粮食产出损失量和损失比例最大的地区。（3）粮食播种面积、农田生产潜力和农业技术投入均发挥了部分中介作用,系数分别为-0.194、-0.025和0.006。（4）应遵从城乡融合以及农业农村发展态势,强化粮食主产区农业生产现代要素投入与政策扶植,构建粮食生产—耕地休耕空间转换弹性机制,保障我国粮食安全。     

不同喷油策略对柴油-四氢呋喃混合燃料燃烧和排放的影响

为了解决环境污染和能源短缺等问题,本研究针对四氢呋喃作为一种含氧替代燃料展开研究.在一台六缸增压柴油机上开展了不同喷油策略下四氢呋喃和柴油混合燃料对柴油机燃烧和排放的影响研究,所用3种燃料分别为：纯柴油、5%四氢呋喃和95%柴油、15%四氢呋喃和85%柴油混合燃料（混合比例均为体积比）,以原机国六脉谱图为基准调节主喷时刻和喷油压力.结果表明,添加5%四氢呋喃使燃油消耗率增加,有效热效率降低,当加入15%四氢呋喃后燃油消耗率进一步升高,有效热效率相比于添加5%四氢呋喃有一定程度改善,但仍低于纯柴油燃料;当喷油压力高于100 MPa时,混合燃料的燃油消耗率和有效热效率随喷油压力的提高基本保持不变.四氢呋喃加入使小负荷下NO_x、CO和HC排放增加;大负荷下使NO_x排放增加,CO和HC排放逐渐降低,各工况下的碳烟排放均降低.由此可见,柴油-四氢呋喃混合燃料的有效热效率相比于纯柴油降低了1%~2%,加入四氢呋喃可有效降低碳烟排放和改善部分工况下的气体污染物排放.     

On the critique of Beck’s view on risk and risk analysis

Ulrich Beck’s stand on risk and risk analysis has been challenged by many researchers. In this paper we look closer into some of the arguments used, with a main focus on the fundamental analysis carried out by Campbell and Currie. These two authors argue that Beck’s criticisms of the theory and practice of risk analysis are groundless: Beck’s understanding of what risk is, is badly flawed, and he misunderstands and distorts the use of probability in risk analysis. However, the analysis of Campbell and Currie is based on a set of premises, for example that risk is a function of probability and harm, and that risk really exists and one can be wrong about risk. Although such ideas are common, they can be challenged, and in the literature a number of alternative perspectives have been suggested. The purpose of the present paper is to study Beck’s stand on risk analysis and the related critique of Campbell and Currie and others, in view of some of these alternative perspectives on risk. To what extent is the critique then justified? The paper concludes that the case raised against Beck’s view is still strong and relevant, but has to be nuanced with respect to some important issues, for example concerning the distinction between belief and truth when it comes to risk. Allowing for spacious interpretations of some of Beck’s theses, the paper provides strengthened support for Beck’s view on these points.     

Ergonomic Aspects of a Virtual Environment

A virtual environment is an interactive graphic system mediated through computer technology that allows a certain level of reality or a sense of presence to access virtual information. To create reality in a virtual environment, ergonomics issues are explored in this paper, aiming to develop the design of presentation formats with related information, that is possible to attain and to maintain user-friendly application.     

Attributes of Occupational Injury Among Workers in the Chemical Industry and Safety Issues

Case-study research was carried out with a view to find the attributes of occupational injury among workers in the chemical industry and to enhance safety issues. Injury data were collected and processed in terms of different variables, such as age, gender, skills, type of hazard, etc. Pareto analysis was then applied to find a pattern of occupational injury among the workers. The study revealed that 79.52% of the injured workers were in the 40–59 age group; 57.14% of accidents occurred during the 1st shift; 73.26% of accidents caused injury to hands, feet, chest to thigh, arms and eyes; and 70.93% of injuries were caused by pumps, carrying and lifting, vehicles, pipelines, valves, and grinding. Surprisingly, no one was injured in the group of temporary workers. The paper also provides specific suggestions followed by some action plans.     

解读《温室气体自愿减排交易管理暂行办法》

本文对发改委颁布的（《温室气体自愿减排交易管理暂行办法》进行了解读、分析其特点并指出尚需进一步解决的问题。     

Reverse logistics in the Chinese auto-parts firms: implementation framework development through multiple case studies

In recent years, the implementation of reverse logistics (RL) in automobile manufacturing has drawn extensive interest from the Chinese government that has launched relevant take-back and environmental regulations and pilot projects. This study focuses on RL implementation issues in Chinese auto-parts manufacturing sector. Based on comprehensive literature review and multiple case studies in the Chinese auto-parts firms, this paper proposes a conceptual RL framework and highlights the major implementation issues. The purpose of this paper is to draw an overall picture of RL in the Chinese context, highlighting implementation issues in the auto-parts sector. Our study suggests that Chinese RL implementation requires close government monitoring mechanism and incentives, top management commitment within firms, technology and human capabilities support.